Here are the probabilities of the 15 best USA stars to play at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris, featuring LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry.
Team USA is gearing up for the 2024 Olympics and is coming off of a disappointing exit in the 2023 FIBA Tournament, where they did not earn a medal. In fact, Team USA did not win the last two FIBA World Cups, finishing 7th in 2019 before the embarrassing fourth-placed finish in 2023. It is time for the Americans to bounce back and show the world who the real kings of basketball are.
Multiple superstars have committed to playing for Team USA, including LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, and Kyrie Irving, meaning there is no stopping them on paper. The question is: what is the probability of each NBA superstar competing in the 2024 Olympics? Depending on factors such as age, injury history, and the way the 2023-24 NBA season turns out, not a single superstar is a lock for the squad and we have the probability percentages of each player competing.
*We excluded all scenarios where players are seriously injured, which means there is 0% of playing at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.
1. LeBron James – 80%, 30%, 10% Chance (3 Scenarios)
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LeBron James has 3 different scenarios and 3 different chances of playing at the 2024 Olympics with Team USA because many factors could influence him to play or withdraw.
80% Chance: LeBron James stands at an 80% likelihood of gracing the 2024 Olympic Games with Team USA under this scenario. The key determinant here is the performance of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Play-In tournament or their potential absence from the playoffs altogether. Should the Lakers fail to advance or miss the postseason entirely, LeBron would find himself with ample time for rest and recuperation.
30% Chance: If the Lakers secure a playoff berth but falter before reaching the NBA Finals, LeBron’s probability of participating in the 2024 Olympics diminishes to 30%. Should the Lakers exit the playoffs, say, in the Western Conference Finals, LeBron may view the Olympics as an opportunity to salvage the season by aiming for Olympic gold. However, with the demands of an extended playoff run, he may weigh the benefits against the need for rest and recovery, leading to a slightly reduced likelihood of Olympic participation.
10% Chance: This scenario presents the lowest probability of LeBron James representing Team USA at the 2024 Olympics, standing at just 10%. If the Lakers succeed in winning the NBA championship or advance to the NBA Finals, LeBron’s schedule would be extended well into July, leaving him fatigued and physically drained. At 39 years old, the toll of a grueling NBA season would likely dissuade him from committing to the additional demands of Olympic competition.
2. Stephen Curry – 90%, 50% Chance (2 Scenarios)
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90% Chance: Should Stephen Curry’s team, the Golden State Warriors, falter and be eliminated either in the Play-In tournament or the first round of the playoffs, Curry would find himself with a sufficient break to consider Olympic involvement. With his season concluded earlier than expected, Curry would seize the opportunity to represent his country on the global stage, driven by the pursuit of Olympic glory and the chance to add his first gold medal to his illustrious career achievements.
50% Chance: If the Golden State Warriors enjoy deep playoff success, culminating in an appearance in the NBA Finals or even securing the championship title, Stephen Curry’s likelihood of participating in the 2024 Olympics dwindles to 50%. A prolonged playoff run would extend Curry’s season well into July, leaving him with limited time for rest and recovery before the Olympics commence, and he might withdraw.
3. Kevin Durant – 90%, 50% Chance (2 Scenarios)
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Kevin Durant will likely play at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris, based on the most recent report. He would become the first player in the history of Team USA to win four Olympic gold medals, if his team succeeds.
90% Chance: If the Phoenix Suns experience an early exit from the playoffs, whether it be in the Western Conference Finals, second round, or any preceding stage, Durant’s chances of Olympic involvement remain high. With ample time for recuperation following an earlier postseason departure, Durant would be well-positioned to join international competition in pursuit of Olympic success, where he is arguably Team USA’s greatest performer.
50% Chance: Even if he wins an NBA title, he will still remain a player with the highest chance to play for Team USA at the Olympic games. The only surprise would be if he wins a title and then decides to prioritize his physical well-being and opt out of the Olympic competition, which would hurt the USA’s chances to sweep the Olympics.
4. Joel Embiid – 80%, 30% Chance (2 Scenarios)
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80% Chance: Joel Embiid holds a promising 80% probability of participating in the 2024 Olympic Games with Team USA, contingent upon him being in full health by the summer. Should Embiid recover fully from any lingering injuries and maintain peak physical condition, his desire to assert himself as the premier center in the NBA would motivate him to seek Olympic glory. Embiid’s competitive drive and ambition to showcase his dominance on the global stage would likely lead him to commit wholeheartedly to representing Team USA at the Olympics.
30% Chance: In a scenario where Joel Embiid faces lingering injury concerns or experiences prolonged postseason success with the Philadelphia 76ers, his likelihood of participating in the 2024 Olympics drops to around 30%. If Embiid’s health is compromised or if he leads the 76ers to the NBA Finals or clinches the championship title, he may prioritize rest and recovery over Olympic competition.
5. Damian Lillard – 70%, 30% Chance (2 Scenarios)
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70% Chance: If the Milwaukee Bucks fail to clinch the NBA championship and Damian Lillard maintains his health, his desire to secure a major trophy after coming up short in the NBA playoffs would drive him to seek Olympic success. Lillard’s competitive spirit and hunger for victory would likely motivate him to commit to representing Team USA, aiming to add an Olympic gold medal to his list of accolades.
30% Chance: It is also likely that Damian Lillard contends with injuries or grapples with off-court factors, such as dissatisfaction with his role on the Milwaukee Bucks, his likelihood of participating in the 2024 Olympics diminishes to 30%. With concerns about his physical condition or his happiness in the NBA with the Milwaukee Bucks, Lillard may opt to forgo Olympic participation to focus on recovery and addressing any lingering off-court concerns.
Credit: Fadeaway World
50% Chance: If Kyrie Irving’s fellow NBA stars like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant commit to playing for Team USA, Irving may feel motivated and a sense of responsibility to join them on the Olympic stage. Their participation could inspire Irving to prioritize the Olympic competition, driven by the desire to contribute to Team USA’s success and the camaraderie among his peers.
5% Chance: In a contrasting scenario where Kyrie Irving prioritizes interests outside of basketball and demonstrates a lack of enthusiasm for Olympic competition, his likelihood of participating diminishes to a mere 5%. If Irving’s focus veers towards other personal pursuits and he perceives basketball as secondary to his broader interests, he may choose to forego Olympic participation altogether and it won’t surprise anybody.
7. Kawhi Leonard – 50% Chance (1 Scenario)
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50% Chance: Kawhi Leonard’s probability of participating in the 2024 Olympic Games with Team USA hinges solely on his health status during the summer, irrespective of the outcome of the current NBA season with the Los Angeles Clippers. Leonard will consider Olympic participation only if he feels completely healthy and physically ready for the rigors of international competition. With his health as the sole determining factor, Leonard’s likelihood of Olympic involvement remains evenly balanced at 50%, reflecting his cautious approach and prioritization of his well-being above all else.
8. Jayson Tatum – 90%, 35% Chance (2 Scenarios)
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90% Chance: If the Boston Celtics fall short of winning the NBA championship, Jayson Tatum may view Olympic participation as an opportunity to salvage the season and redeem himself by capturing gold with Team USA. Motivated by the desire to bounce back from a disappointing NBA campaign and to prepare for the upcoming season, Tatum would be highly inclined to commit to Olympic competition, fueled by the prospect of achieving international success.
35% Chance: In an alternate scenario where the Boston Celtics enjoy significant postseason success, including a deep playoff run culminating in an NBA championship victory, Tatum’s likelihood of participating in the 2024 Olympics diminishes to 35%. With the demands of a prolonged playoff campaign and the need to prioritize rest and recovery, Tatum may hesitate to commit to Olympic competition because he will want to go back-to-back in 2024-25.
9. Jimmy Butler – 70%, 20% Chance (2 Scenarios)
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70% Chance: Jimmy Butler holds a strong 70% probability of participating in the 2024 Olympic Games with Team USA if the Miami Heat faces an early exit from the playoffs. Butler may view the Olympic competition as an opportunity to pursue a major trophy and redeem the season’s disappointment. It isn’t easy to not win a title after making two Finals appearances with the Heat.
20% Chance: After enduring the physical toll of previous Finals appearances in 2020 and 2023, Butler may prioritize rest and recovery over Olympic competition. Recognizing the importance of preserving his health and longevity in the NBA, Butler may opt to forgo Olympic participation to ensure he is fully rested and prepared for the upcoming NBA season, particularly if the Heat make another extended playoff run.
10. Devin Booker – 90%, 35% Chance ( 2 Scenarios)
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90% Chance: If Devin Booker remains healthy during the summer and is motivated to pursue a major accolade at the age of 27, Olympic participation would align perfectly with his ambitions. Eager to add an Olympic gold medal to his list of achievements, Booker would enthusiastically commit to representing Team USA, driven by the desire to compete at the highest level and contribute to his country’s success on the international stage.
35% Chance: If Booker secures an NBA championship with the Phoenix Suns, his likelihood of participating in the 2024 Olympics diminishes significantly to just 35%. With the demands and physical toll of a deep playoff run and championship celebration, Booker may prioritize rest and recovery over Olympic competition. Recognizing the importance of preserving his health and longevity in the NBA, Booker may opt to forgo Olympic participation to ensure he is fully rested and prepared for the upcoming season, particularly after winning an NBA title.
11. Anthony Davis – 65%, 35%, Chance (2 Scenarios)
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65% Chance: If the Los Angeles Lakers experience an early exit from the playoffs and Davis remains relatively healthy, he may prioritize Olympic participation over NBA success. Recognizing the challenges of winning an NBA championship with the Lakers and the comparatively higher likelihood of achieving Olympic gold with Team USA, Davis would be motivated to commit to representing his country on the international stage, driven by the opportunity to contribute to Team USA’s success and add an Olympic gold medal to his resume.
35% Chance: In an alternate scenario where Anthony Davis feels completely banged up after the NBA season, his likelihood of participating in the 2024 Olympics diminishes to 35%. If Davis is dealing with significant injuries or physical limitations, he may prioritize rest and recovery over Olympic competition. Understanding the importance of starting the next NBA season in full health, Davis may opt to forgo Olympic participation to ensure he can fully rehabilitate and prepare for the upcoming season, particularly if he will be backup support for players like Joel Embiid and Bam Adebayo on Team USA instead of starting.
12. Bam Adebayo – 75%, 20% Chance (2 Scenarios)
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75% Chance: Bam Adebayo holds a strong 75% probability of participating in the 2024 Olympic Games if the Heat don’t win a championship and his desire to pursue Olympic gold would motivate him to commit to Team USA. With the opportunity to represent his country and add a prestigious gold medal to his collection, Adebayo would enthusiastically embrace the chance to compete at the highest level on the international stage.
20% Chance: Meanwhile, if Adebayo is significantly banged up as a result of the demanding postseason, he may prioritize rest and recovery over Olympic competition. Understanding the importance of preserving his health and longevity in the NBA, Adebayo may opt to forgo Olympic participation to ensure he is fully rested and prepared for the upcoming season, particularly after enduring a grueling playoff campaign.
13. Anthony Edwards – 50% Chance (1 Scenario)
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50% Chance: Anthony Edwards’ likelihood of participating in the 2024 Olympic Games with Team USA stands at an interesting 50% under this scenario. If Edwards receives the call-up to represent Team USA, there is a near-certainty of around 90% that he will eagerly suit up for the Olympic competition. However, the challenge lies in the competitive landscape, where numerous talented players vie for spots on the Olympic roster. The presence of heavy competition may introduce uncertainty regarding Edwards’ participation, as his selection is not guaranteed.
14. Donovan Mitchell – 50% Chance (1 Scenario)
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50% Chance: Donovan Mitchell faces the same situation as Anthony Edwards whereby if Team USA gives him the nod, he will almost certainly play (assuming perfect health). However, there is only a 50% chance he does suit up for Team USA in the Olympics because he isn’t quite as good as Devin Booker and doesn’t have the natural leadership skills and experience of stars such as Jimmy Butler, Damian Lillard, and Kyrie Irving.
15. Paul George – 35% Chance, 15% Chance (2 Scenarios)
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35% Chance: Paul George’s probability of participating in the 2024 Olympic Games with Team USA stands at 35% under this scenario. If George receives the call-up as a replacement option due to injuries to the top 12 stars, his chances of Olympic participation are contingent on his injury status. Despite being considered as a potential replacement, George’s own injury concerns could diminish his availability for Olympic competition.
15% Chance: Given his history of injuries during the summer months, there is uncertainty surrounding George’s ability to stay healthy and remain available for Olympic duty. But it is also very unlikely George gets a call-up ahead of other shooting guards/small forwards, including Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, and Jayson Tatum.
