Rory McIlroy isn’t the absolute favorite in the FedEx Cup playoffs. The difference between Scottie Scheffler (No. 1)  and McIlroy (No. 3) is 3,348, more than the point difference between him and Chris Stroud (No. 239). Yet the Ulsterman is likely to retain his FedEx Cup crown, one that he earned after years of dominance.

Rory McIlroy has amassed a whopping $67 million from FedEx Cup earnings, more than anyone in its 18-year history. A massive chunk of that has come from his three FedEx Cup titles. In 2022, the Northern Irishman rallied from six shots behind Scottie Scheffler to earn his third FedEx Cup title and the Tour Championship. McIlroy pocketed a whopping $18 million courtesy of that victory at East Lake.

It was sort of a repeat of what he did in 2019. Five years ago, McIlroy held off threats from Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele at the Tour Championship to net his second FedEx Cup title and join Tiger Woods as the only two-time champion. The Ulsterman nabbed a $14 million paycheck.

His first FedEx Cup victory came in 2016. There was no dearth of late drama at East Lake that year. Rory McIlroy went into a sudden-death playoff against Ryan Moore and Kevin Chappell. But the actual battle was between him and Dustin Johnson. Had he lost, DJ would’ve bagged the $10 million top prize and the FedEx Cup. But McIlroy prevailed en route to his first Tour Championship and FedEx Cup title.

Undoubtedly, this year, this year’s FedEx Cup is a duel between Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. Regardless of who wins, Rory McIlroy’s $67M FedEx Cup crown will be hard to snatch.

What are the chances for others to topple Rory McIlroy?

Without Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson in the field, the closest to Rory McIlroy is Justin Thomas. Even then, Thomas is almost $25M short of Rory McIlroy. On top of it, he is in the middle of a tumultuous run of form. Whereas, the two players primed to emerge victorious have little chance of catching the Ulsterman.

Xander Schauffele’s earning is around one-third of McIlroy’s. So, even if the San Diego alum pips the Northern Irishman to a $25M triumph, he needs to bag at least two of three remaining $20M-purse events. Moreover, McIlroy has to crash out of the playoff at some point to make room for Schauffele.

Scottie Scheffler, on the other hand, was outside of the top ten in the FedEx Cup earnings list compiled by Golf Digest last year. So, world no.1’s case is quite similar to Schauffele’s. As you can see it hinges on a lot of ‘buts’ and ‘ifs’. But they are best avoided when it involves Rory McIlroy. So the throne at the top looks safe for the Ulsterman.