Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes endured a frustrating 2023 campaign, and they have been working without one key player.

Nyck de Vries was once seen as Lewis Hamilton’s successor (Image: Getty)

Nyck de Vries was once labelled as Toto Wolff’s ‘insurance policy’ in the event that Lewis Hamilton called time on his F1 career out of the blue. However, the Dutchman has since moved on from Mercedes, who are still without a ready-made successor for their star driver.

Lewis Hamilton signed a new two-year deal with Mercedes last season, tying him down with the Silver Arrows until the end of the current regulation period in 2025. However, after the 2021 Abu Dhabi controversy, it looked possible that the legendary Brit may quit the sport, and a similar scare isn’t unforeseeable if the Silver Arrows continue to regress.

During the uncertain period during the 2021 winter break, Wolff had De Vries in the background ready to step in should Hamilton have quit F1. The Dutchman already had the 2019 Formula 2 title and Formula E title under his belt, while his test and reserve duties with the team meant that he was familiar with their machinery.

De Vries’ Mercedes ties eventually led to a Grand Prix start when he stepped in for Alex Albon at customer team Williams in 2022, with his point-scoring debut triggering Helmut Marko to sign him full-time for AlphaTauri in 2023.

This move left Mercedes without their former Hamilton ‘insurance policy’ – as dubbed by Tom Coronel on the RacingNews365 podcast – heading into 2023 with Mick Schumacher drafted in to fill De Vries’ former role as test and reserve driver off the back of a disappointing two-year stint with Haas.

There was no joy for De Vries after his move though. His F1 career was left in pieces just ten races into his time with AlphaTauri. The 28-year-old only finished higher than P14 on one occasion as Marko mercilessly dropped him, bringing Daniel Ricciardo back into the fold in his place. With no other teams interested in picking him up thereafter, he returned to Formula E, signing on with Mahindra for the 2024 campaign.

One full season later, Mercedes are no closer to marking out a clear long-term successor to Hamilton. George Russell has long been considered the long-term team leader beyond his team-mate’s retirement, although his future partner remains a mystery.

With no F1 teams willing to take Schumacher on in a full-time capacity for the 2024 campaign, the young German has instead pivoted towards a career in endurance racing with Alpine, while also carrying on with his Mercedes test duties on the side.

Frederik Vesti made two FP1 appearances during the latter stages of the 2023 season, but the F2 vice champion is unlikely to be trusted to make the step up to Mercedes’ driver line-up without plying his trade further down the grid first, and opportunities to do so look extremely limited.

Instead, Wolff looks to be pinning his hopes on 17-year-old sensation Kimi Antonelli. The Italian is one of the most hotly anticipated motorsport prospects of the modern era and will make his F2 debut in 2024, but his single-seater career is still in its infancy with his assault on the top rung of the feeder series ladder expected to be a two-year programme.

So, despite De Vries calling time on his stint with Mercedes over 12 months ago, if Hamilton were to announce his shock retirement at the end of the upcoming season, the Silver Arrows would be left floundering with all their chips laid down at the feet of teenage starlet Antonelli.

Mercedes’ long-term hopes are now pinned on Kimi Antonelli (Image: Getty)

In Wolff’s dream world, the W15 will launch as a success, Hamilton will stay with the team into the new regulation period and Antonelli’s F2 triumph, whether that comes in 2024 or 2025, will be followed by a developmental season or two with Williams.

However, F1 has a habit of throwing up unexpected twists and turns and a premature promotion for Antonelli could risk hampering the most exciting talent to graduate through the feeder series ranks since Max Verstappen.

The verdict for Wolff and Mercedes is simple – they need a short-term contingency plan to last until Antonelli is ready, and that is to assume that the Italian’s development will progress as expected, which is far from guaranteed in the ever-changing landscape of motorsport. After all, De Vries himself once stood in those shoes.