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Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: Which MVP quarterback has edge in AFC championship?

When the Chiefs meet the Ravens in the AFC championship game on Sunday, it will likely be a battle of the past two NFL MVP winners.

That does not happen often.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the Chiefs in the AFC championship game for the sixth consecutive season. Mahomes won his second AP NFL MVP award last year and is looking to win a third Super Bowl this season.

Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is the favorite to win his second AP NFL MVP award this season. He previously won the award in 2019, and the Ravens are hosting the AFC championship game for the first time in franchise history.

This is the best quarterback matchup remaining in the postseason, and there is some precedent with two-time MVPs on conference championship weekend.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: Which QB is better in 2023? 

Jackson had the better regular season in 2023. He ended up with 3,678 passing yards with 24 TDs and seven interceptions despite sitting out the season’s final game. He also had 821 rushing yards and five TDs. The Ravens finished 13-4 and earned the top seed in the AFC playoffs.

Jackson entered the playoffs with a 1-3 record in the postseason, but he responded with 152 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and four total TDs in a 34-10 romp against Houston in the divisional round. This is Jackson’s first AFC championship start.

Mahomes struggled in the regular season by his standards. He finished with 4,183 passing yards – his lowest total since 2019 – and 14 interceptions – his highest total in the same time frame. Mahomes still threw 27 TDs in 16 games while working with a young group of receivers.

The playoffs, however, have been a different story. Mahomes is 40-of-64 for 477 yards, three TDs, and no interceptions, and he led the Chiefs to victories against Miami and Buffalo – teams that had identical records in the regular season.

Mahomes is 3-2 in AFC championship games as a starter. He’s thrown for 1,515 yards with 14 TDs and two interceptions in those games.

History of NFL MVPs in conference championship

If Jackson wins a second NFL MVP award as expected this year, then he would become the 11th player to take home the award more than once, joining the likes of Peyton Manning (5), Aaron Rodgers (4), Tom Brady (3), Brett Favre (3), Jim Brown (3), Johnny Unitas (3), Mahomes (2), Joe Montana (2), Kurt Warner (2), and Steve Young (2).

In one notable championship matchup between MVP winners, Baltimore and Cleveland met in the NFL championship game in 1964. Brown led the Browns to a 27-0 victory against the Unitas-led Colts.

Manning and Brady met in the conference championship round four times, and Favre and Young had one head-to-head matchup in the NFC championship game.

The last time back-to-back MVPs met in the AFC championship game was in 1979. Pittsburgh beat Houston 27-13 in an AFC championship matchup that featured ’78 NFL MVP Terry Bradshaw and ’79 NFL MVP Earl Campbell. The Steelers also beat the Oilers 34-5 a year earlier in the AFC championship game.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: Past matchups 

Jackson and Mahomes have met in four head-to-head matchups, and the Chiefs are 3-1 in those games.

Jackson averaged 187.5 passing yards per game with a 56.2-percent completion percentage, four TDs, and two interceptions in those matchups. He also averages 75.8 rushing yards per game with three TDs.

Mahomes averaged 369.8 passing yards per game with a 71.8-percent completion percentage, 12 TDs, and two interceptions in those matchups. He’s also added 35 rushing yards and a TD.

A look at the matchups:

Chiefs 27, Ravens 24, OT  (Dec. 9, 2018) 

The Chiefs tied the game at 24 on a five-yard TD pass from Mahomes to Damien Williams in the final minute, and Harrison Butker kicked the game-winning 35-yard field goal in overtime. Mahomes finished with 377 passing yards, two TDs, and an interception. Jackson had 147 passing yards, two TDs, and 67 rushing yards.

Chiefs 33, Ravens 28 (Sept. 22, 2019) 

The Chiefs blew open a huge lead at Arrowhead Stadium with a 23-point second quarter. Mahomes, who finished with  374 yards and three TDs, hit Mecole Hardman for an 83-yard touchdown pass to really open things up. The Ravens scored 15 points in the fourth quarter, but it was not enough to complete the comeback. Jackson had 267 passing yards and 46 rushing yards in the loss.

Chiefs 34, Ravens 20 (Sept. 28, 2020) 

Mahomes passed for 385 yards and four TDs in a road test at M&T Bank Stadium on Monday Night Football. Second-quarter TD passes to Hardman and Tyreek Hill helped the Chiefs build a 27-10 lead in the first half, and the Ravens could not catch up. Jackson had 97 passing yards with 83 rushing yards and a TD.

Ravens 36, Chiefs 35 (Sept. 19, 2021)

This was the best matchup of the four, and a possible preview for Sunday’s game. The Chiefs took a 35-24 lead with 6:50 left in the fourth quarter on a 46-yard TD pass from Mahomes to Travis Kelce, but Jackson rallied the Ravens with back-to-back touchdown runs on the next two possessions. Baltimore held on for the win. Jackson had 239 passing yards, 107 rushing yards, three total TDs, and two interceptions. Mahomes had 343 passing yards, three TDs, and an interception in the loss.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: The new standard? 

Every elite quarterback matchup will get compared to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and it’s simply not fair.

Manning and Brady met in the AFC championship game four times. Manning won three of those matchups while playing for the Colts and Broncos. Manning won the AP NFL MVP award five times, and Brady won the award three times. The quarterbacks never won those awards in back-to-back seasons, however.

Manning shared the NFL MVP award with Steve McNair in 2003. The Colts lost to the Patriots 24-14 that season. Manning also won the award in ’13 with Denver, then led the Broncos to a 26-16 victory against New England in the AFC championship game. Brady won the NFL MVP in ’07 and ’17, and he led the Patriots to victories against the Chargers and Jaguars, respectively, in AFC title games those seasons.

Mahomes also has faced Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow twice in the AFC championship game. Burrow, however, has not won the NFL MVP award. That’s why this matchup with Jackson is a little more glamorous.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson: Who advances to Super Bowl 58? 

The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in the AFC championship game, but they will have to prove they can slow down Mahomes in this matchup once and for all.

The Chiefs have dominated the AFC with Mahomes, and the extra attention from the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift relationship has only put more attention on that success. Kansas City will be tough to beat.

Jackson, however, is playing at an MVP level and has a chance to silence any remaining critics with a Super Bowl run.

Which team can score more than 24 points? That is the stat that matters. Baltimore allowed more than 24 points in two games this season. Kansas City allowed more than 24 points only once. According to our prediction, Baltimore will win 27-24. Sporting News’ Vinnie Iyer picked Kansas City to win 30-27.

This is a true toss-up between MVP-caliber quarterbacks.

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